Forecasting the Number of Patients with Kidney Failure in Thi-Qar Governorate using Time Series

  • Hassan Hopoop Razaq College of Administration and Economics, Department of Economics, University of Thi –Qar
Keywords: Autoregressive Model, Time Series Analysis, Mean Squares Error, ARIMA Model

Abstract

This paper has been used time series models for the study and analysis of monthly data to the number of patients with Kidney Failure in Thi-Qar Province for the period (2020-2023) in order forecasting by the numbers of patients with Kidney Failure for the period (2024-2025). The result of data analysis show that the proper and suitable model is Integrated Autoregressive model of order ARIMA (4, 0, 1) because it has the least mean squares error (MSE). Based on the best model, the number of people with Kidney failure was predicted monthly and for the next two years and the predictive value was consistent with the original values and this indicates the efficiency of the model.

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Published
2024-03-13
How to Cite
Razaq, H. H. (2024). Forecasting the Number of Patients with Kidney Failure in Thi-Qar Governorate using Time Series. CENTRAL ASIAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL THEORY AND COMPUTER SCIENCES, 5(2), 24-35. Retrieved from https://cajmtcs.centralasianstudies.org/index.php/CAJMTCS/article/view/614
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Articles