Long-term Energy Forecasting Methodologies: Review and Discussion
Abstract
Due to the development of human activities, energy demands are rapidly variable nowadays; these changes need to be tracked by the energy producers and suppliers. Adding new generation facilities is considered costly and time-consuming for the electrical Energy. Therefore, it is important to forecast the demand growth for the long term, in which a new facility is established to fulfill the presented demand. Further, the guidance of the capital’s enhancements in the sector is also highlighted. However, the current paper concerns the long-term load forecasting methodologies, which are presented and discussed precisely. The accounted methods are classified according to availability, so the most available methods are classified first, then each category is listed and explained. Another vital factor encompassed by the former suggested methods is analyzed accurately, starting from the input dataset and the selected input parameters and their effect on the obtained results, then the comprehended periods by the input dataset and ending with the performance indices that are used to measure the performance of each method. Furthermore, a couple of significant points are concluded: The first is the necessity for a generalized data set to be used as a test bench for the suggested methods. The second one is the selection of the proper performance indices to measure the performance.
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