Prices of Building Materials and Their Impact on Residential Growth Trends in Iraq
Abstract
This research discusses and applies a study on the impact of changes in the prices of building materials on residential expansion and the construction or renovation of new units in Iraq. The aim was to determine the extent of the impact of price fluctuations in building materials on urban expansion and to identify the most important materials affected by this change. The researcher relied on a descriptive analytical approach, collecting information on the study variables based on publications by the Central Statistical Organisation of Iraq, the International Monetary Fund. Some variables were adopted, represented by the dependent variable, which is the number of housing units (number of building permits granted for construction or renovation), in addition to four independent variables represented by three building materials considered essential for construction, namely bricks, cement and reinforcing steel, and a fourth variable, which is the (estimated) per capita income NGDPOPC, based on the annual publication of the International Monetary Fund. The time period ranges from 2015 to 2023. The data was analysed using a descriptive analytical approach and some statistical methods, the most important of which was the variance inflation factor (VIF) to measure the absence of linear multicollinearity . and the Pearson criterion was used to measure the correlation between the dependent variable and other variables . Finally, a regression equation was derived to predict the number of housing units according to price changes. The results indicate a strong correlation between the number of units and the prices of building materials, and that the relationship between the variables is statistically significant. Therefore, the hypothesis that there is a statistically significant level and that the four independent variables all affect the model to varying degrees is accepted, noting that the most influential material is the price of bricks, as the higher the price of bricks, the lower the number of units, and that per capita income has a direct effect on the increase in the number of units, as an increase in per capita income leads to an increase in the number of units. brick prices rise, the number of units decreases, and per capita income has a direct effect on the increase in the number of units, as an increase in per capita income leads to an increase in the number of units.
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